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My Trade Blog
« on: October 17, 2008, 03:07:20 PM »

Back in May I did this thing for a week at FC where I listed all my RL option trades for that week as it happened to show several things including the basis launching pad for my options trading strategy and financial blog but I never got to go into the detail of it and it got buried within Twap's daily scoreboard spam. The results though, were typical of what i get during a normal market...

Total running investment: $3,410
Total net profit or loss: $4,280 (+126%)


I think it will be fun to do the same here though I won't bother to list everything or keep a running score of my trades like I did that week at FC. I do still have in mind to some day start a financial blog site and have people pay for my information.

Why would they do that? Because I plan to use my success at Invetopedia to my advantage and they would see my rank and results there after I hopefully make it into the top 50 out of over 150,000 players...

Quote from: THE BRA1N on: May 08, 2008, 08:32:58 PM
Im going to use my other Investopedia account which has about a 70 or 80,000 balance and soar to the site's top 50 within the next 60-90 days. Shouldnt be too hard as long as the market holds steady and doesnt have too many major drops.

Then, after people see my name eventually rising to the top 10 out of 1000s, I just may start a subscription based blog about options trading and reference all this so that people can see where I was today vs where Im going to be at that time.

Here is my current Investopedia Competition rank...
(*Rankings are evaluated overnight. Following rankings are as on 5/8/2008 8:30:40 PM )
View All (USD) Your Rank (USD): 150908

http://www.flamechampsnetwork.com/forum/index.php?topic=8912.msg239542#msg239542

My rank as of yesterday:
Quote
(*Rankings are evaluated overnight. Following rankings are as on 10/16/2008 8:40:12 PM )
View All (USD) Your Rank (USD): 270


It will be like winning the World Series of Poker and then opening your own poker school or site. I'll have my work cut out to crack the Top 50 because they are among the best pros (I'm not a pro) but I think that I can before the end of the year. I believe my trading strategy will yield me more gains than losses as long as I stick to my disciplined approach. I will go into it later on but for now let me start by listing my trades..

Today, I bought Nov 45 calls in FREEPORT-MCMORAN (FCX) for 2.15. Earnings announcement is on Tues and Im looking for good earnings news and a bounce off the beaten stock price. FCX is a gold and copper mining company.

Buying any calls in this climate is very risky because even though the company might report good earnings, the tide of the market might still sink it. It's already down more than 20% since I bought it. Up to now, I have mostly been buying puts in companies with a few notable exceptions like Morgan Stanley which is my new favorite company since i bought in at 7 (it's around 20 today).

Here's the quote for the FCX call for anyone to verify the price at any time: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FCXKI.X
Again, Tuesday will be the big day.

As an aside, I am not an investor. I am a trader who seeks to buy calls or puts in companies who I think are about to make some news which will affect the stock price up or down in the very near future, make a profit and sell as soon as feasible. Charts, graphs Points & Figures are all great to look at but Im not one of those traders who lives by them. I base most of my trades on the psychology of the market and where the money goes of those who know more inside information than me or most anyone else. I'll write more about this at time goes by.

If anyone is new to this and having trouble figuring something out, feel free to ask me. Also, if someone has their own strategy which they would like to demonstrate, then I encourage you to start another trade blog thread.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2008, 11:50:51 AM »

Just so that you're aware, I c&p'ed some of your posts on this at FC and emailed them to my boss, the director of Mutual Funds at my company (no I will NOT tell everyone where I work, I'd get fired in a hot second); I do believe he signed up at Investopedia. I'll ask him for his nic on Monday and let you know who he is. This should be fun to watch.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2008, 02:39:50 PM »

That's cool, Im sure he'll be somewhat interested once i get into my thesis for trading and the corresponding results. People who manage mutual and hedge funds usually have advance degrees in finance and business related fields and do a ton of research on company fundamentals, earnings and the like so I expect a great deal of skepticism from pros toward me putting most of that aside but my results speak for themselves.

While every major hedge fund in the country is down for the year, Im generating over a 2000% annual rate of return on Investopedia, albeit mostly with options but my same strategy can be applied to stocks for a more conservative approach and rate of return. Lots of money managers like to sell leading into earnings news because they dont want to take the risk.

Well, my first selection here got hammered yesterday with bad news instead of good which sent my Calls tumbling after a modest gain leading into the news. Today with the market slumping, it's down even more which is the double risk that I feared and mentioned in these times.

I like to try to hedge my bets so I bought FCX with the thought in mind that if the company missed earnings, there's would still be a chance for it to recover in a few days because the stock has been really beaten down so much coming into earnings news and the PE ratio is an eye-popping 3-4% which is like finding a wedding dress for 75% off. So with the mind, Im still holding on to FCX and hoping for a turnaround though Im not holding my breath. For now, I have it as total loss of investment.

So what I'll do until the market rebounds to at least 9,500 again, is to try and stick to companies that i think will be announcing disappointing earnings and couple that with the synergy of the bear market that we're going through and buy puts only in them unless it's a Call that is screaming out to me. That's what Ive been doing since Sept with good success.

Aside from companies though, I also buy calls and puts on QQQQ and SPY which is the market in general because i dont like to trade options and be delta negative or positive to the extreme. Even though I posted back in Sept that I thought the market was headed for a crash this month and was loading up on Puts (when it was still above 11,000), the chance of being wrong always exists so I have to hedge in some other way by say, buying calls in Morgan Stanley and Goldman which should appreciate greatly in an uptrend or now by buying calls in QQQQ and SPY while mostly buying puts in companies.

Today, Im looking to buy puts in TSCO - TRACTOR SUPPLY CO which is trading around 34 but they are a bit pricey and volatile so i havent bought anything yet but i;m monitoring it. They come out with news later today.

I have an order placed to buy 10 Calls of FFIV Nov 25 @ .35. Earnings is also today and a lot of smart money has been flowing to it over the past few days. I may have to raise my bid to .40 to get it. Even though the market is down over 300 pts, the stock is holding it's own trading at around 19.75 which is mostly unchanged but the call is up 80% which tells me something is up . Good earning plus a market rally tomorrow can send this one soaring.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FLKKE.X

With so many dozens of companies reporting earning in the next couple of days, there are a lot of great potential buys that I need to look at for today but I havent had the time to do so yet so I'll probably just wing it and buy them on Investopedia and see what happens tomorrow. This will make more sense once i finally go into my thesis.


Edit - Order executed @ .35 so Im in play for FFIV.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2008, 04:11:58 PM »

What a crazy end to the trading day! I sold some puts on QQQQ which i previously had both in my personal portfolio and Pedia for a nice profit and bought some calls in the same - QQQQ Nov 33 for $1. The market seems to have some support around the low to mid 8000s so hopefully it will bounce back big either tomorrow or the next day and I can cash out a nice 50% plus profit in 1-2 days. That's a better return than even the mobs gets.  :vc:

OH SNAP, the earnings news for FFIV just flashed across my screen and the stock price is blowing through the roof already in after hours. It;s up over 15% from the 4 pm close which means my Calls are probably going to be up over 50% tomorrow!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FFIV
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2008, 05:05:15 PM »

Now THAT'S what I'm talking about..

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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2008, 11:40:23 PM »

My Trading Philosophy, part 1

Let me start with the big picture. As I previously mentioned, I am not an investor, I am a trader. As far as trading goes, I love to trade options. For those who don't understand the distinction, an investor is someone who buys instruments which they think will appreciate over time and are more focused on the long term than the short term.

They may be looking for returns in 10 or 20 years from purchase so what happens in the short term in a day or a month or even a few months to a year to the price of a stock doesn't concern them as long as they believe that the fundamentals of a company are strong and it will make lots money (better said, profits) in the future. Warren Buffet is an example of an investor.

A trader is the opposite in many respects but mainly in the time the trader is looking to generate a profit. My typical round trip trades take less then a week. That's is, I will typically buy options and sell them within 7 days. If the price is too low or white hot and still climbing, then I might hold on to it longer but with options the longer you hold on to it, the more "time value" you lose which is part of the price of it. Thus, you don't want to sit on it and let it incubate like an egg. Or assume that it will appreciate as time goes by like an investor would.

Think of it as giant blocks of melting ice that youre trying to sell to people in a town with no water or electricity while the temp is just above freezing. As time goes by, the ice is slowly melting but you want to try and sell it all for as much as possible while you can because you never now when a heat wave will strike and leave you with a big puddle of water. Even if the temp stays the same a few degrees above freezing, it is slowly melting and will eventually all melt anyways.

It's a crude example but that's kind of what trading options is like. I like the risk of it and i like to gamble only when the odds are in my favor. I have been trading options for over 10 years and I have made and lost a small fortune doing so. During the year before the tech bubble burst, I started trading with $500 in my account and turned it into around $40,000 before Alan Greenspan's interest rate hikes doomed me and countless of others and the markets suddenly reversed and plummeted in 2001.

The last straw for me was 9-11 so I didn't get to enjoy much of that $40,000 but it taught me a valuable lesson which I will always carry with me which is that you cant put all your chips on the market going in just one direction. The overwhelming number of people out there with investment accounts only look to BUY shares to go up which is why they are feeling the pain right now in these difficult times. It is why they consider it bad news when a day like today, the market went down 500 points. They are suffering through what I went through in 2001. But it doesn't have to be that way.

My Trading Style

Managing risk is a critical component of trading options. If you don't know what you're doing, you can be wiped out before you know what happened. You not only have to account for the company you're buying into, but also things like terrorist attacks and news which ostensibly has nothing to do with your company. More on how I manage risk later.

I am a very active trader during earnings season and now that the overall market is bouncing up and down like a Happy Fun Ball. A very hyperactive, volatile market is my friend. A flatline market is my enemy when dealing with options.

I much prefer to buy options which under $2. The lower the better but not so far out of the money that they have little chance of reaching the strike price.

For example, if a stock is trading at 30 I'll consider buying a call at 33 that is trading for 1.50 but not if the I have to look at a 40 call for around the same price. That means the stock price has to move from 30 to around 40 in my time period in order for me to make a decent profit. (I also look at something called "delta" but I wont get into that right now). In other words, I like near the money options and not "far out of the money" options 99% of the time.

The point of all that also has to do with managing risk. The cheaper the option, the less your risk is. For example above, today I bought 10 calls of FFIV for .35 or a small investment of $350. If the calls approach .70 or more tomorrow (which barring something big, is very likely considering how it shot up in after hours trading), they will double in price and be worth $700. It doesnt sound like a lot but it's not bad for less than 24 hours and only a 350 investment. Id need to put A LOT of money in a CD for a year to get that same sum as interest.

What My Trade Motivation Is

Before I get into stock picking, let me discuss what I consider to be the crux of my trading philosophy - which is what drives stock prices up or down.

Almost everyone I know or read or see on CNBC or who has a blog on the net or who otherwise has some idea about what they are doing, uses a combination of stock charts, graphs, reports, recommendations, moving averages, historical resistance levels, you name it, in order to help them pick stocks and decide when to buy and when to sell.  I don't.

That doesn't mean that I have no use for that or that I don't put any stock into it (pun). I just consider it as a secondary source of information to use for trading, not primary.

I dont care what the charts say, I wont base my trades strictly on them. Why? Because I think I have something much better and more powerful to base my decision to buy and sell on - NEWS.

No matter what any chart says or indicates or what any wall street guru might think about the prospects of a company, NOTHING MOVES STOCK PRICES MORE THAN NEWS!

All the charts and buy ratings for every blue chip company from 3 months ago don't mean a thing and cant save it from tanking if say, the Congress fails to pass credit bailout bill during a credit crunch, or a terrorist attack in a major city happens, or if George Bush decides to invade Iran as a parting gift to us before he leaves office.

The point is that everything in the markets is influenced, susceptible and sensitive to news. News about the economy, news about strikes, wars, invasions, terrorist attacks, shortages, weather, fuel prices, supply and demand, you name it.

So instead of charts and graphs, I base my decisions to buy on news. What news though? How do I know what Bush is going to do or if terrorist are going to attack? How do I know when something is going to happen which will effect the market?

The answer is, I usually dont know. If I did then everyone else would know too and it wouldn't be news. It would already be priced into the markets. Sometimes I might get word of rumors from the pipeline like recently when I posted about Citi possibly buying out WaMu and how I immediately bought calls in response before it spread like wildfire but most of the time those tidbits get to me, it's too late to act on because too many people know and it's already priced in. You need to know that something is going to happen or might happen before they say anything about it on CNBC.

But there is at least ONE item of news which I know is going to happen and I know exactly when it will happen and I know that when it happens, it will definitely have an effect on a stock price - EARNINGS NEWS.

To be continued..


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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2008, 10:00:10 AM »

OH SNAP, the earnings news for FFIV just flashed across my screen and the stock price is blowing through the roof already in after hours. It;s up over 15% from the 4 pm close which means my Calls are probably going to be up over 50% tomorrow!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FFIV



Sold 5 of my calls already for .90 ($450) and a 157% return on them. I got my entire original investment back (for the 10 calls) and made 100 no matter what. Im going to be a little greedy and hold on to the other 5 calls and hopefully get over 100 for each but im not liking the direction of the markets so far.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2008, 08:35:42 PM »

Today's Yahoo FFIV Nov 25 call quote chart for the record. It closed up 100% (where else can you get a 100% return on your investment in less than a day?) but I sold half of my calls when they were up 157% this morning. More than a reasonable profit.

I dont like to keep options over the weekend so I hope the market has an up day Friday so I can try to sell my other 5 calls for more than today.

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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2008, 04:05:16 PM »

Another wild day that had me on the edge of my seat. Im actually apprehensive about what I think might happen on Monday. Will the Dow drop more than 1000 points or will it kick off the week with a rally? Let's see if I played it right.

I sold the rest of my 5 Calls today as I said i would, for $1. So that's $500 + $450 (from yesterday) = $950.

My total investment was $350 so that means my profit and return was $600 and 171% in just 2 days. Had I invested more like in 2001, just add another zero to those numbers and you can see why I like trading options so much.

I have a gut feeling that something really ugly is going to happen Monday or in the early part next week followed by an upward surge in the markets like we've rarely seen before. Thus, I didnt buy any companies reporting earnings today but I did buy quite a few relatively cheap, out of the money Puts in QQQQ and DIA just in case Im right and it turns out to be the Black Monday the Halloween week from hell. Hang on to your pensions!  :lol:

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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2008, 01:48:43 AM »

Geezer, I thoroughly recommend that you sign up at facebook if for no other reason than their absolutely shit hot stock exchange application.  It knocks spots off Investopedia but more importantly there are hundreds of first class traders, some 200/300% up on the market and even more importantly they post about their strategies and stuff that they've heard about stocks etc etc and its pretty obvious that the top echelon are pro's just messing around on the app.

If you have any probs finding your way around PM me and I'll help you out.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2008, 06:24:17 PM »

LOL, 200-300%? If that all? The #1 guy at Investopedia took $100,000 and turned it into over $100,000,000 at last check. The mere mention of his nic at FC - Locke11 - sent a shitload of people from Google or Yahoo to the Fc link looking for info about him as no doubt they will be looking at this too in the future.

And just to put things in perspective, there are currently over 137,000 accounts there (apparently down from over 150,000 since the markets tanked) and only 10 of them have made over $1 million. That's some pretty separation from the pack and claim to being the best if I do say so myself.

Do they trade options in Facebook? I already have an account there but I dont want people from here to see my schools, my pics or my PI. I'll try to check it out though.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2008, 07:42:02 PM »

So BRA1N, when one of the mindless cretins who posts on this shitty board blows their life savings following your phony advice will you be cheerfully refunding their money.

Anyone can c&p from online text books and photshop some images, BTW.

Just so you know.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2008, 10:02:32 AM »

Anyone can c&p from online text books and photshop some images, BTW.

Just so you know.

Which is why I facilitate things by posting direct links with price quotes, genius. If I say that I bought xyz stock today and post a link to Yahoo Finance with the price which anyone can verify and a day or two or three later, the stock shoots up or down, would I be able to "photshop" my way through that?

And incidentally, Im not giving anyone financial advice or telling them where they should put their money. Im merely posting my own trades to substantiate my trading theories and educate those who may be interested in this. No different than someone posting their weekly NFL picks.


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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2008, 02:12:28 PM »

I'll be damned, the FFIV calls are up to 1.50 today which means had I held on to them for 5 days, my $350 investment would be worth $1,500 or up 330%, at least as of right now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FLKKE.X

One of the difficult decisions that I struggle with in options trading is when to take a profit and sell and many times I have to tell myself to resist the temptation to sell and be more greedy but no matter what, you can't wrong or broke taking a 150% + profit. There are other times when being too greedy can burn you and your 150% can suddenly evaporate so striking the balance is the key.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2008, 03:54:23 PM »

Okay, now Im kicking myself. It's up to 2.05, i.e., $2005 from a $335 investment a week ago. Had the market not tanked 500 points and 300 points the next day and the day after right when I bought it, this is likely what would have happened in the next couple of days after the earnings news was announced.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FLKKE.X
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2008, 01:29:45 PM »

Somewhat related to my strategy concerning news moving the markets, I bought 10 calls of QQQQ Nov 35 today @ .75, $750 total plus commission. I think that the world markets are going to soar the rest of the week after Obama wins tonight, barring some other terrible news.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QQQKI.X
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #16 on: December 16, 2008, 10:24:01 AM »

Geezer, I thoroughly recommend that you sign up at facebook if for no other reason than their absolutely shit hot stock exchange application.



Interesting....  http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/15/BUJ214OE86.DTL


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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2009, 07:15:31 PM »

Do you remember those poor fuckers that got really burnt shorting on the wrong way with Volkswagon....

Oh fuck.... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7814257.stm   :no:
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2009, 10:44:34 AM »

I lost 1k in Home Depot, I should have picked Lowes, I would have profited handsomely.


Can we post some dark horse stocks in this thread, for the "trader" is some of us, or should I start a new thread? Investing is for old people, just ask Madoff.
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Re: My Trade Blog
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2011, 02:58:44 AM »

I can see why this thread crashed and burned. To be honest Bra1nless sucks at this. I completely humiliated him at FC when it came to this. In fact it was so brutal he stopped playing

Embarrassing
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