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princess of ptTopic starter

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Political Polls and Projections
« on: October 13, 2008, 08:24:16 PM »

I began my last numbers thread with this map from September 22 found on
 http://www.electoral-vote.com/



Todays map shows a considerable difference.  :vc:



Projections from;
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

Sept. 22 Oct. 13

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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2008, 08:34:34 PM »

It's getting close to landslide numbers. I dont know what is considered official but im pretty sure that 370 or 100 more than needed would be considered a landslide. McCain has to know it's slipping and will probably try some crazy shit in the last debate.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2008, 08:53:06 PM »

I anticipate him being desperate enough to arrive in a white hood and impale Bob Schieffer with a burning cross javelin style; All the while vehemently denying he is a racist after he has turned his strategically erratic race into one that has become primarily based on encouraging fear and hatred and of which panders wholly to the intellectually weak who are so "proud to be an American"; yet, can not define exactly what it means to be an American while behaving like obnoxiously intolerant hate mongers.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2008, 03:44:19 PM »

Grampy's last hope.


Get at least one ignorant, toothless redneck that is a good shot pissed off enough to pink mist Obama's brain.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2008, 12:30:38 AM »

update:




Nate at fivethirtyeight.com feels Obamas momentum has possibly "stalled out". Interesting...



Today's Polls, 10/17
In Chuck Todd we trust; all others must bring data. And right now, we're in something of a holding pattern, waiting to see the next turn in the race. Obama's momentum has possibly stalled out, but has probably yet begun to reverse itself. It's also possible that Obama's momentum was on the verge of reversing itself before Wednesday night's debate, but that the debate was enough to hold McCain off or perhaps even shift things further in Obama's direction. Furthermore, it's possible that the numbers will simply flatline until November 4 as Obama runs out McCain's clock (with no more major events on the campaign calendar, this may in fact be the most likely possibility). We will probably know a lot more about this race by Sunday or Monday, once the impacts of the debate are fully accounted for.


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls



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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2008, 09:54:45 AM »

An esteemed member of the PoPt  inner circle cabinet once commented in private many weeks ago that Obama would take this election by a landslide. The comment was re-assuring and gave me great hope.  :vc:
Cross your fingers kiddies!


in comparison to 10/17


News from the Votemaster

McCain Concedes Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico
CNN is reporting that McCain is making those tough decisions that politicians love to talk about. According to CNN, McCain is abandoning Colorado (9 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 Evs). If Obama wins these three he gets 21 EVs. Add these to the 252 EVs Kerry won and he has 273 and becomes President. McCain's strategy at this point is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and--get this--Pennsylvania. The first six are arguably swing states, but our three-poll average puts Obama 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. McCain is effectively betting the farm on a state which looks like an Obama landslide. It is a strange choice. Colorado looks a lot easier than Pennsylvania. James Carville once famously said that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama sandwiched in between. Maybe McCain is going to go all out to win the white working class men in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania. McCain can't possibly do it on the economy. What's left? Maybe run against the Wright/Ayers ticket? Any way you look at it, this has to be a desperation move.


10/2010/17

Nate from fivethirtyeight.com still has some interesting projections that conflict with the numbers above from electoral-vote.com



Monday, October 20, 2008

It's been a confusing day of polling -- one of those where I'm happy to have a computer handy to do my dirty work for me. The trend over the past 7-10 days remains slightly toward McCain. It is difficult to pinpoint, however, just where the movement started. If I take the average of my daily point estimates from Thursday through Sunday -- since the final presidential debate was concluded -- I show Obama at a +6.0. That compares with a +6.6 in the ten days that proceeded the debate. However, looking at things even more precisely, it appears that the movement may have preceded the debate by a day or two, and that the debate itself was something of a wash.

It is also not clear whether Colin Powell's endorsement has had any effect. Obama gained ground in four of the seven national trackers today, lost ground in two, and the last one was a push (this does not include the brand new ABC/WaPo tracker, which debuted today).

The central point is this: if McCain has gained ground -- and most likely he has -- then what he's done is reset the race to roughly where it was two weeks ago, when Obama also had roughly a 6-point national lead. Except, the two positions aren't entirely equal, since two weeks have run off McCain's clock. Roughly speaking -- and accounting for his inferior position in the electoral college -- McCain needs to gain about half a point per day every day between now and November 4 to become a favorite in the electoral college. That is not an easy task; from the nadir of Obama's numbers, which we put at 9/12, to his peak, which we put at 10/11, Obama was gaining about a quarter of a point per day on average. That is, by the standards of a presidential campaign, very rapid movement. But McCain needs to get those numbers down about twice as quickly as Obama got them up, and he does not have any debates or other major public events to assist him.

McCain also has significant problems with his electoral map, particularly in Virginia and Colorado, which continue to project about a point or so ahead of Obama's national numbers. While McCain appears to have stopped the bleeding in Florida and perhaps Ohio, that is not the case in Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina, which have drifted closer to the national averages.

If McCain were to make a kamikaze play for Pennsylvania -- as John King seems to imply -- while conceding Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, this wouldn't seem to make his task much easier. The Kerry states less PA, but plus CO, IA, and NM equal 252 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 18 votes short. Obama could pick up those votes in one fell swoop by winning Florida or Ohio -- or, more plausibly, by winning Virginia plus any one of North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana or Nevada.

It is unlikely that McCain can accomplish this all of this organically, by winning garden-variety news cycles or even by claiming the lion's share of undecideds. Rather, he likely needs some kind of unknown, external contingency to place himself back in the thick of the race.





 
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2008, 10:03:34 PM »

I dont see how Florida is so tight or in favor of McCain. Everywhere I look, i see hoards of people for Obama; people like gang members wearing t-shirts with Barack and Michelle Obama's face on it who look they are voting for the first time and i just dont see that for McCain. Maybe in the boondocks and the hick towns where Shadow lives but there just arent that many people out there so i have to question some of those polls. Obama seems to be doing a much better job of energizing people to come out and vote for him who wouldnt normally vote and that makes a big difference.

If Obama gets most Democrats to come out and vote and just splits the independents down the middle, he should crush McCain by at least 53 or 54% since Dem outnumber Reps in the state. McCain would then get about 40% and the rest would go to all the 3rd party candidates.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2008, 10:39:28 PM »

What a difference a day makes...

todays updated polls


yesterdays


projections
yesterday today

lmao@dead cat bounce!

After some incremental improvements by John McCain over the course of the past week, we are now looking once again a handful of polls showing Barack Obama with a double-digit lead -- most dramatically his 14-point advantage in the latest Pew poll. Obama also gained ground in the aggregate of the national trackers, which showed four Obama gains (Zogby, Gallup, Pew, IBD/TIPP), one McCain gain (Battleground), and three pushes (Rasmussen, Research 2000, ABC/Post).

What we may have witnessed is some sort of dead cat bounce for John McCain. One possibility is that, as more voters are taking advantage of early voting windows across the country, the pollsters are finding that some voters whom they considered "unlikely" voters have in fact turned out to vote. Zogby gives Obama a 21-point lead nationwide among people who have already voted, and SurveyUSA and Civitas peg his advantage among early voters in North Carolina at around 20 and 30 points, respectively.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2008, 12:48:42 AM »

Zogby gives Obama a 21-point lead nationwide among people who have already voted, and SurveyUSA and Civitas peg his advantage among early voters in North Carolina at around 20 and 30 points, respectively.[/b][/i]


Wow, 30pts! That's what I mean though. Obama is a transcendent figure like Gen. Powell talked about. He's like JFK or someone larger than life who has IT and inspires people to believe in him. You can see it even back when he was at Harvard according to some of his classmates.

He was speaking in my county today and it was standing room only for those who were able to get a ticket. Outside the place, there was a mob of people, some waiting since 5 am just to try and get a glimpse of him and show their support.

Couple that with the record U.S. crowd for a campaign rally of 100,000 yesterday in St Louis and 75,000 in KC and you can see what Im talking about. That's just unprecedented.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2008, 12:57:53 AM »

oh bother!! Bernanke endorses Obama! I wonder how this will effect the numbers or if it will even make an impact?

Ben Bernanke apparently wants four more years as Federal Reserve Chairman. At least that's a reasonable conclusion after Mr. Bernanke all but submitted his job application to Barack Obama yesterday by endorsing the Democratic version of fiscal "stimulus."

While the Fed chief said any stimulus should be "well targeted," even a general endorsement amounts to a political green light. Mr. Bernanke certainly knows that Mr. Obama and Democrats on Capitol Hill are talking about some $300 billion in new "stimulus" spending, while President Bush and Republicans are resisting. And by saying any help should "limit longer-term effects" on the federal deficit, he had to know he was reinforcing Democratic opposition to permanent tax cuts.

Mr. Bernanke could have begged off -- and would have been wiser to do so -- given how much the Fed has already made itself a political lightning rod with its many Wall Street interventions. He might also have thought twice about endorsing one party's policy preferences a mere two weeks before Election Day given his obligation to preserve the Fed's independence. We can remember when tougher Fed chairmen used to refrain from adjusting interest rates close to an election for fear of seeming to be political; they would never have dreamed of meddling in campaign tax and spending debates.

Perhaps Mr. Bernanke's blunderbuss political intrusion will win him more Democrat friends, and maybe even Mr. Obama's goodwill. To the rest of the world, he has harmed the Fed and made himself less credible.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455027730552509.html

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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2008, 03:38:07 AM »

I haven't made a comparison in 10 days as far as electoral-vote.com goes, so here is an update; My GOODNESS, would you just look at Arizona  :vc:






Projections from fivethirtyeight.com

10/21 10/27

Nate Silvers comments (i love this guy!)

John McCain is making no progress in his pursuit of the White House. Our model now projects Barack Obama to win 351 electoral votes to John McCain's 187, and to win the Electoral College 96.7 percent of the time to McCain's 3.3 percent. Both numbers are unchanged from yesterday



Polls;


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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2008, 08:09:47 AM »

I think Obama will win fairly big, but the Bradley Effect in places like Ohio and WV will keep it below 300.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2008, 10:16:46 AM »

I'm surprised that Obama hasn't made more of an issue of Iraq considering that it was the big reason why the Republicans got booted out of office in 06 but nevertheless I think that trend will continue. Obama will get closer to 375 than 300 and the Dems will get 59 to 60 in the Senate.

Bye bye, Mitch McConnel, Liddy Dole and best of all, the most corrupt, pork barrel politician in the Senate, Ted Stevens.

I'm looking forward to Al Franken stirring the pot in the Senate. I hope he can pull it out.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2008, 03:25:27 PM »



I'm looking forward to Al Franken stirring the pot in the Senate. I hope he can pull it out.

I can't remember where I saw it at the moment, but it was a little Hillary clip, endorsing Al Franken! It was terribly funny. I'll have to dig it up on youtube later  :lol:
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2008, 03:17:07 PM »

The final polls and projections;





10/27 11/3


Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.

I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't.

However, Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).

Secondly, McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.

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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2008, 05:15:00 PM »

Will Obamas grandmothers death now affect things?
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2008, 05:45:39 PM »

I doubt it. It will only make the GOP asshats who downed him for taking a few days off at the end of the campaign, just to spend time with her in Hawaii, look worse than when they actually made the comments they made;  :sad:

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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2008, 05:52:53 PM »

This may seem callous but I am interested to see how the issue is presented.

Obama as the heartless politician who considers politics more important than family...against Obama the world leader who will put his country first.

Folk are a fickle bunch and both those views will affect how the undecided votes.
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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2008, 06:28:16 PM »

Well, Joe Biden was sworn into office, in the hospital room where both of his boys were recovering from near fatal injuries from an accident that took his wife and his daughter. He also stepped away from the campaign when his mother-in-law passed.
I don't think Obama rushing off into the night to be with his grandmothers dead body, the day before or the day of the election; is going to sway voters either way.
He made preparations when he put his campaign on hold and went to visit her, obviously with the notion that her situation was dire. That in and of itself was a noble move and it would be understandable if he waited until Wednesday to be with her, if he hasn't already arranged to have her body flown to the states for burial.
The folks that are fickle, having a negative view on any projected behaviors surrounding this circumstance, are likely not the folks who intend on voting for Obama anyway, imho.
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Fragged

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Re: Political Polls and Projections
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2008, 11:24:58 PM »

Ugh can we NOT post polls about the election? This type of horse race bullcrap is covered on the news EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. and it deters people from actually looking at the candidates as anything but "winning" or "losing". I actually watched part of a news program today where they took an entire segment to go into "Well what if both candidates got 269 votes? Well you see if we switched these 281478689 states and McCain does a Mexican hat dance around Fidel Castro's flaccid penis in an Indian headdress while Obama sings Come Sail Away in the corner then we have a snowball's chance in hell of seeing this stupid scenario ever come to fruition. But just in case the people actually give a diarrhea shit, let's take 30 minutes to go over what could happen if this highly unlikely*cough*impossible*cough* even should come to pass."

Tired of seeing "OH MY GOD LOOK AT OBAMA GO! HES GOT MOMENTUM!" when there's ZERO momentum to be had, considering not a single fucking vote had been cast yet. Let's focus on who's gonna do what for the country, and not worthless polls.
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