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Author Topic: Hurricane Feral  (Read 1882 times)

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Hurricane Feral
« on: September 01, 2017, 11:53:46 PM »

This is going to be very bad news for a lot of people if it hits land and it's looking more and more like it will.





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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2017, 01:35:21 PM »



For those who aren't sure what all those lines above means, it's called the spaghetti run. It's a compilation of different computer weather and hurricane forecast models. Each line represents a different model. The colors and geometric figures are to id the model to the key above the map, along with the Zulu time (GMT) of when the computer simulation was last run. Some models are far more accurate than others.

Other spaghetti runs like the one in the previous post (updated below) are of one particular model with the different colors indicating the hurricane intensity (darker means more intense). In this chart below (and previous post), it is the GEFS model which has 21 different forecasts plus a mean (black line) and control (blue line) run.



The official National Hurricane Center forecast is the 5 day cone one. Beyond that the accuracy tends to be diminished so that's why don't go beyond 5 days but with the awesomeness of the internet anyone can find these spaghetti models which extend beyond the official forecast.

Right now they seem to be converging on a landfall around North Carolina, Virginia as a catastrophic cat 4 or 5 hurricane in about 9-10 days which means the entire East Coast of the USA will be on pins and needles next week waiting to see where it goes, especially with Harvey fresh in everyone's mind.

If you live in those areas it might be a good idea to start stocking up on food and supplies before the panic sets in. I know I will Monday or Tuesday.

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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2017, 07:13:37 AM »

Saw this on the news this morning and thought.." wonder if this will hit TR..."


Quote
If you live in those areas it might be a good idea to start stocking up on food and supplies before the panic sets in. I know I will Monday or Tuesday.

All the best to you and yours...stay safe x

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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2017, 12:17:00 PM »

When the different forecast models are in agreement, the confidence for where it's going is higher. It is still looking like it's heading towards the Carolinas, possibly more powerful than Harvey.



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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2017, 06:43:59 PM »



For those who aren't sure what all those lines above means, it's called the spaghetti run. It's a compilation of different computer weather and hurricane forecast models. Each line represents a different model. The colors and geometric figures are to id the model to the key above the map, along with the Zulu time (GMT) of when the computer simulation was last run. Some models are far more accurate than others.

Other spaghetti runs like the one in the previous post (updated below) are of one particular model with the different colors indicating the hurricane intensity (darker means more intense). In this chart below (and previous post), it is the GEFS model which has 21 different forecasts plus a mean (black line) and control (blue line) run.



The official National Hurricane Center forecast is the 5 day cone one. Beyond that the accuracy tends to be diminished so that's why don't go beyond 5 days but with the awesomeness of the internet anyone can find these spaghetti models which extend beyond the official forecast.

Right now they seem to be converging on a landfall around North Carolina, Virginia as a catastrophic cat 4 or 5 hurricane in about 9-10 days which means the entire East Coast of the USA will be on pins and needles next week waiting to see where it goes, especially with Harvey fresh in everyone's mind.

If you live in those areas it might be a good idea to start stocking up on food and supplies before the panic sets in. I know I will Monday or Tuesday.




The point is that people shouldn't wait for these things to manifest in their news channels and beforehand prepare for the what if's.
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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2017, 07:53:04 PM »

The point is that people shouldn't wait for these things to manifest in their news channels and beforehand prepare for the what if's.


Yep, I called family members in the zone of danger today to told them to start getting ready for an indirect hit in the best case scenario. Worst case is of course a direct hit.

It is trending the wrong way for all of Florida. There is agreement that it will eventually turn sharply to the north at some point near Florida but no consensus yet as to when.





Oh and btw, there is a 60% of another major storm forming right behind Irma within 5 days. Trump better start ordering some more evacuation air boats and clean blankets




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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2017, 01:42:52 AM »

Holy fuck, the worst case scenario for the State of Florida is now a distinct possibility starting on Sept 11!

If it follows that track up the entire eastern Florida coastline the amount of damage would be astronomical and inconceivable. 

This fucker is creeping closer and closer to us. At this rate I hope it keeps shifting west and misses Florida altogether!






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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2017, 06:30:48 AM »

Better batten down the hatches.



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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2017, 08:58:37 AM »

Yup, looks like it's staying south for now and going into the gulf.  Not good for the Keys. No offense, but  this is good news for the New England coast-
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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2017, 10:17:50 AM »

No pity for those who live on floodplains and in swamps. Fuck them. They deserve it.
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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2017, 03:16:11 PM »

Seems like the turn to the north keeps shifting farther to the west which at this point is a relief to me and millions of others.

The latest official NHC forecast has the middle of the cone right over Cuba on Saturday which could weaken it some and allow it to travel farther west before the steering currents coming from the north turn it.



The latest models indeed show a slight shift to the west which would be considerably less catastrophic than the FL east coast, at least before it strikes another state.

Western South Florida past the Keys is mostly Everglades swamp until it gets to the Marco Island, Naples and Fort Myers area which is comprised of significant numbers of part time residents and northerners (like New Yorkers) who have vacation spots down there. It is far less densely populated than the southeastern coast.

It still would dwarf Houston if it keeps churning up the west coast through Tampa, St Pete and eventually into Georgia and the Atlanta area. A similar track up the eastern coast would just be unthinkable catastropic damage if it maintains Cat 4 or Cat 3, even Cat 2 strength.

It's mind numbing how two or three degrees difference from where it turns north can have such dire consequences for the lives of millions of people who can be potentially impacted next week and span so many states father north which may get hit with torrential rains and flooding or avoid the brunt of it.









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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2017, 04:47:32 PM »

See my av?

That is my reaction when I see this - a direct hit from the eye wall on a location on that map where I am at.




Miami-Dade County hasn't been hit by a hurricane since Andrew in 92 or 93. I went through that one and three others in Palm Beach County. Three of the four were hours and hours of pure hell.
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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2017, 06:04:23 PM »

Yeah.....the taxpayers don't much care for subsidizing that bullshit either...
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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2017, 07:47:59 PM »

Florida Gov. Rick Scott declares state of emergency ahead of Category 4 Hurricane Irma
Published September 04, 2017 Fox News

Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in the state as rapidly growing Hurricane Irma, now a Category 4 storm, is expected to make landfall later this week.

The state of emergency has been issued for all of Florida’s 67 counties. Scott said that the state would “prepare for the worst and hope for the best” as Irma is expected to hit the state around Friday.

The governor tweeted Monday that he urges "all Floridians to remain vigilant and stay alert to local weather and news and visit www.FLGetAPlan.com today to get prepared."

“Hurricane Irma poses a severe threat to the entire State of Florida and requires that timely precautions are taken to protect the communities, critical infrastructure, and general welfare of this State,” the executive order stated.

Scott suggested on Twitter that state residents should use their Labor Day to prepare for Irma's arrival.

The announcement came after Puerto Rico’s governor issued a state of emergency Monday. Irma is expected to hit the northwest Caribbean Tuesday, where government workers are preparing for the storm to make landfall.

Emergency officials have warned that the storm could dump up to 10 inches of rain, unleash landslides and dangerous flash floods and generate waves of up to 23 feet as the storm draws closer.

If Irma makes landfall as a Category 4, it'll be the first time in 102 years that two Category 4 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. within the same year, according to KOCO.

A hurricane watch was in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the British and U.S. Virgin islands and Guadeloupe. A tropical storm watch was issued for Dominica.

The Category 4 storm was moving west-southwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds up to 130 mph, according to the U.S. Hurricane Center. The storm was centered about 490 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2017, 07:43:57 AM »

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I suspect that the three x-men between them couldn't handle even OBI in a match.
That would be interesting - Obi vs. Oranje, LoCo and Duke.

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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2017, 08:35:35 AM »

Quote from: CNN
It is still too early to tell the exact impact Irma will have on the United States.

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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2017, 06:02:45 PM »

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I suspect that the three x-men between them couldn't handle even OBI in a match.
That would be interesting - Obi vs. Oranje, LoCo and Duke.

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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2017, 07:35:51 PM »

People here are already freaking out over this. Gasoline lines were hours long in many places, chaos and fights at Home Depots and parking lots and horrible traffic everywhere.

I went to three grocery stores today, two of them didn't have any bottled water of any kind left (or most anything else of value to consume when you dont have power) and the last one (a Walmart) apparently just gotten a big shipment of Dasani. The line of shopping cars stretched from the back of the store storage area all the way out the front door.

They are selling cases of bottled water on Amazon for $40 which normally sells for $5. People are complaining about that type of illegal price gouging but they're still buying it.

The funny thing is, if you've been through these things before and pay attention to the lessons you know that bottled water is the easiest thing to get for free after the storm. Every disaster relief station hands them out to you (in many cases with ice bags) and you don't even have to get out of your car.

So I was not able to get more water or Gatorade but they did have Power Bars which are great for carbs/energy in case of emergencies. I'm probably going to have to evacuate from the coastline Wed or Thurs and go a relative's house (inland) but I got most of my necessities already in hand. Those who wait until the last day are going to be shit out of luck. Maybe they should have gotten some of those $2000 food buckets from Jim Baker.

Im still optimistic that the center goes to the west and misses Dade County like Donna did in 1960 or that it tracks to the east offshore which puts us on the weaker western side of the hurricane. One of the more accurate models has it slamming in Cuba then turning north in the Gulf of Mexico and sparing most of Southeastern Florida. Here's hoping.









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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2017, 08:52:14 PM »

Meh.
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Oh really?! Johnny?! Or should I call yuo Mr. Jiggy Fly from Brawl Hall? Talk about "relevant"? Just like yuor butt buddy, one BEnzo... Yuo tried and tried to be "relevant" but that stupid ass avatar of Clint Eastwood along with yuor saying... "Dying ain't much of a living"...or whatever BULLSHIT yuo were saying at that time does not make yuo a flaming prodigy. I know for a FUCKING fact yuo were dumpstered more times than I was fellated by my beautiful wife and was a fucking nobody at BH. Here yuo are relegated to faglames and shitty posts...Yuo truly do suck Serafina balls.

Tell me I'm wrong faggot.

You’re wrong, faggot.

 :snick:

Johnny Storm

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  • Posts: 13539
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  • Awards: 100 Replies - Names for cdub’s stag forum100 Replies - What are you having for Thanksgiving?100 Replies - Match the cars/vehicles to the membersTRF Flame ChampWin vs feral, Breakfall100 Reply Thread - Cookie Monster is so gay..100+ Reply Thread - My thoughts on Jorge Zimmerman2008 Fantasy Football Champ
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Re: Hurricane Feral
« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2017, 08:54:14 PM »

South Beach will be clear tomorrow....going for a run and soak up some sun. 
Logged
Oh really?! Johnny?! Or should I call yuo Mr. Jiggy Fly from Brawl Hall? Talk about "relevant"? Just like yuor butt buddy, one BEnzo... Yuo tried and tried to be "relevant" but that stupid ass avatar of Clint Eastwood along with yuor saying... "Dying ain't much of a living"...or whatever BULLSHIT yuo were saying at that time does not make yuo a flaming prodigy. I know for a FUCKING fact yuo were dumpstered more times than I was fellated by my beautiful wife and was a fucking nobody at BH. Here yuo are relegated to faglames and shitty posts...Yuo truly do suck Serafina balls.

Tell me I'm wrong faggot.

You’re wrong, faggot.

 :snick:
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